معرفی
Thomas Chadefaux is a Professor of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Michigan and an M.A. from the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva. Prior to his current role, he served as a Visiting Assistant Professor at the University of Rochester and a Postdoctoral Researcher at ETH Zurich.
His research focuses on the predictability of interstate conflict, leveraging advanced statistical methods, machine learning, and big data (e.g., satellite imagery, financial markets, news archives). He investigates decision-makers’ anticipation of war risks, the dynamics of conflict escalation, and the application of early warning systems. His work bridges empirical analysis with theoretical insights from game theory, contributing to top journals like the American Political Science Review and advising institutions such as the German Department of Foreign Affairs and the EU.
Key achievements include awards for best paper (American Political Science Review, 2018), best conference paper (Oxford, 2012), and best visualization (Journal of Peace Research, 2014). His methodologies emphasize time-series clustering and pattern-based approaches to improve conflict forecasts.
Chadefaux collaborates internationally on projects like the VIEWS Prediction Challenge and employs innovative tools such as dynamic synthetic controls for causal inference. His research underscores the interplay between public and private information in diplomatic crises, with implications for policy and international relations.
