Daniel Steven Nagin

Daniel Steven Nagin (born November 29, 1948) is the Teresa and H. John Heinz III University Professor of Public Policy and Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College. A leading figure in criminology and statistics, Nagin has made transformative contributions to understanding criminal behavior and developing analytical methods for longitudinal data.

Nagin's research focuses on criminal deterrence theory, developmental trajectories of criminal behavior, and statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data. He pioneered group-based trajectory modeling, which has revolutionized how researchers identify distinct patterns of criminal behavior across the life course. His work has challenged conventional wisdom about the deterrent effects of capital punishment and harsh sentencing, emphasizing that certainty of apprehension matters more than punishment severity for deterrence.

Nagin's publications show a clear evolution from early work on deterrence theory to methodological innovations in trajectory modeling, and more recently to applications of these methods across diverse domains including mental health, prescription drug use, and economic outcomes. His most cited works center on group-based trajectory modeling approaches and their applications to criminal behavior.

• 2014 Stockholm Prize in Criminology
• 2006 Edwin H. Sutherland Award from the American Society of Criminology
• 2017 NAS Award for Scientific Reviewing
• Elected Member of the National Academy of Sciences (2025)
• Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science

Nagin has supervised numerous doctoral students who have become influential scholars in criminology and related fields. His research has been supported by major grants from the National Institute of Justice, the National Science Foundation, and other federal agencies. He has served on influential committees including the National Research Council's Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty, whose 2012 report concluded existing research on capital punishment's deterrent effect was inconclusive.

As a methodological innovator, Nagin's group-based trajectory modeling approach has created new opportunities for understanding developmental processes across multiple disciplines. His work continues to influence both theoretical developments in criminology and evidence-based criminal justice policy.