Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, holding appointments in the Department of Psychology (School of Arts and Sciences) and the Wharton School (Management). He is a leading scholar in political psychology, organizational behavior, and forecasting science, with a career spanning institutions like UC Berkeley, Ohio State University, and Penn. His work bridges social psychology, decision theory, and geopolitical analysis.

• Education: B.A. (1975), M.A. (1976), University of British Columbia; Ph.D. (1979), Yale University

Tetlock’s research focuses on expert judgment, forecasting accuracy, and counterfactual reasoning. He pioneered studies showing that while most experts are no better than chance at predicting political events, a subset termed superforecasters consistently outperform peers. His Good Judgment Project (with Barbara Mellers) demonstrated how team-based aggregation and probabilistic thinking improve predictive outcomes.

His recent publications analyze prediction markets, crowd wisdom, and Bayesian betting to identify elite forecasters. Articles emphasize decomposing complex questions, calibrating confidence, and reducing cognitive biases through structured methods.

• Key Awards: American Political Science Association’s Woodrow Wilson Award (2006), Robert E. Lane Award (2006), Harold Lasswell Award (2008), MacArthur Fellowship (1987-1989), and Andrew Carnegie Fellowship (2015).
• Leadership Roles: Director of the Institute of Personality and Social Research (UC Berkeley, 1988-1995), Associate Dean at Wharton (2003-2004), and co-founder of the Good Judgment Project.