معرفی
Philip E. Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in the Psychology Department and the Wharton School of Business. A leading scholar in social psychology, political psychology, and decision science, he is renowned for his work on forecasting tournaments and expert judgment. His research bridges organizational behavior, cognitive science, and geopolitical risk assessment.
- Ph.D., Yale University (Psychology, 1979)
- M.A. and B.A., University of British Columbia (1976-1975)
Tetlock’s research focuses on:
- Expert judgment and its limitations in political and geopolitical forecasting
- Counterfactual reasoning in world politics and historical analysis
- Forecast aggregation via prediction markets and polls
- Cognitive biases in decision-making and belief perseverance
His recent publications explore:
- 2024 – Comparing prediction markets (LMSR vs. CDA) and their efficacy in identifying elite forecasters
- 2023 – Analyzing long-range geopolitical forecasts and the role of specialization in nuclear proliferation prediction
- 2022 – Challenging the false dichotomy between individual forecasting and systemic risk awareness
Scientific awards include:
- Fellowships in the American Philosophical Society, MacArthur Foundation, and American Academy of Arts and Sciences
- Thomas Schelling Award, Woodrow Wilson Award, and Grawemeyer World Order Prize
- Multiple MacArthur Fellowships and Distinguished Scientific Awards
As co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, Tetlock has pioneered superforecasting and probability judgment training. He advocates for Bayesian reputational bets and adversarial collaborations to advance scientific progress in political science and behavioral economics.
