Phil Tetlock

Phil Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship at the University of Pennsylvania, holding professorships in Management (Wharton School), Psychology (School of Arts & Sciences), and a secondary appointment in Political Science. His work bridges decision-making, forecasting, and interdisciplinary collaboration. He is renowned for research on expert judgment accuracy, adversarial collaboration, and AI applications in prediction. Tetlock’s recent focus includes improving forecasting methodologies through machine learning and mitigating cognitive biases in geopolitical analysis.

Research interests emphasize decision science, political psychology, and the intersection of technology with human judgment. Notable contributions include developing forecasting proficiency tests and analyzing the efficacy of adversarial collaboration in behavioral science. His work often addresses societal challenges like existential risk assessment and scientific censorship.

Publications highlight trends in AI-driven forecasting, geopolitical prediction accuracy, and ethical dilemmas in research. Tetlock advocates for robust accountability systems in intelligence analysis and policy-making, emphasizing calibration of confidence and depolarization of attitudes through structured debate.