Ian Duncan

Ian Duncan serves as an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Statistics and Applied Probability (PSTAT) at the University of California, Santa Barbara. A distinguished actuary and serial entrepreneur, Duncan has established himself as a leading expert in healthcare analytics, having successfully sold three healthcare data analytics software companies. He is a founding member of UCSB's Innovators Circle and established the Janet and Ian Duncan Chair in Actuarial Science through the Innovators Circle Founders' Pledge.

Duncan holds a B.A. (Hons) in Math/Economics from the University of Natal, a B. Phil. in Economics from Balliol College, Oxford, and a PhD in Actuarial Statistics from Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh. His academic credentials include Fellowships with the Institute of Actuaries (London), Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries (US), and Conference of Consulting Actuaries, along with certification as a Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CAS) and membership in the American Academy of Actuaries.

His research focuses on actuarial science applications in healthcare, particularly risk adjustment systems, predictive modeling, and healthcare economics. Duncan has pioneered work in disease management, healthcare intervention evaluation, and healthcare risk adjustment. His career bridges theoretical actuarial science with practical applications in healthcare analytics, having worked as an actuary in London and Canada before moving to the United States to work for Aetna Insurance and later in healthcare strategy consulting at Pricewaterhouse.

Analysis of Duncan's recent publications reveals a strong focus on healthcare economics, particularly in obesity management, pharmaceutical economics, Medicare cost analysis, and risk adjustment systems. His work consistently applies actuarial science principles to solve real-world healthcare problems, with increasing emphasis on machine learning applications and value-based healthcare models in his most recent research.

• Fellow, Society of Actuaries (FSA)
• Fellow, Institute of Actuaries (London)
• Fellow, Canadian Institute of Actuaries
• Fellow, Conference of Consulting Actuaries
• Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CAS)
• Member of the American Academy of Actuaries

Duncan teaches courses PSTAT 171, PSTAT 172 A/B, and PSTAT 296 A/B at UCSB. He began teaching at the university full-time in 2014 after previously serving as an adjunct professor starting in 2011. His entrepreneurial experience informs his teaching, as he encourages students to be more entrepreneurial and take calculated risks. Duncan established the Janet and Ian Duncan Chair in Actuarial Science with proceeds from his business ventures, which is currently held by Professor Gareth Peters. His wife Janet, a former insurance company executive, is also a PSTAT lecturer at UCSB and served as CFO of his third company.

Through Santa Barbara Actuaries Inc. and his role in the Innovators Circle, Duncan maintains active connections between academia and industry, providing students with valuable networking opportunities and real-world perspectives on actuarial science applications in healthcare analytics.