Toby Rollin Ault

Toby Rollin Ault is an Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Studies for Atmospheric Sciences in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University, where his research addresses emergent climate risks through interdisciplinary approaches spanning climatology, ecology, and paleoclimatology.

• PhD, University of Arizona, 2011
• Postdoctoral Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2011-2013

His work centers on three critical areas: quantifying 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest using paleoclimate proxies and modeling; analyzing spring onset dynamics and phenological shifts across US ecosystems; and characterizing multi-decadal Tropical Pacific variability and its global teleconnections. This research integrates observational synthesis, statistical techniques, and numerical modeling to assess climate change impacts on water resources and seasonal cycles.

Analysis of his recent publications reveals dominant trends in drought attribution methodology, tropical-extratropical climate linkages, and quantification of climate change impacts on hydrological and phenological systems, with increasing emphasis on industry-relevant risk assessment applications.

His honors include:

• Faculty Fellow in Community Engaged Learning (Cornell Office of Engagement Initiatives, 2019)

Dr. Ault secures research funding through Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability initiatives, including a 2025 industry partnership for drought risk assessment. He teaches Climate Dynamics (EAS 3050/5051) and Climate and Energy (EAS 1101), mentoring graduate students as Director of Graduate Studies.

He leads the Emerging Climate Risk Lab (ECRL), which develops frameworks for communicating climate risks to policymakers and industry stakeholders through interdisciplinary collaboration.