David Stebbins

David Stebbins is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation and a Professor of Policy Analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. He also serves as the associate director for research support for RAND's Forecasting Initiative (RFI), where he leads research on transnational criminal organizations, foreign terrorist organizations, intelligence policy, emerging technologies, and soft-power influence. His work supports various U.S. government agencies, including those within the Intelligence Community (IC), Department of Defense (DoD), and Special Operations Forces (SOF).

• Ph.D. in Conflict Resolution, George Mason University
• M.A. in International Affairs, Columbia University (focus: international security policy, conflict resolution)
• B.A. in Social Science, Castleton State College

Stebbins’ research interests span intelligence community dynamics, counterterrorism, violent extremism, and the impact of emerging technologies on national security. He has deep regional expertise in the Middle East, with working proficiency in Arabic and extensive knowledge of extremist networks in Iraq, Syria, and the broader region. His recent work explores AI applications in intelligence, personnel vetting reform, and forecasting models for geopolitical risk.

His 15 most recent publications reflect a strong focus on intelligence policy, security clearance processes, emerging technological threats, and military decision-making. Themes include bias mitigation in intelligence, AI-augmented battlefield analysis, and the risks of AI in chemical and biological warfare. His work combines rigorous policy analysis with practical frameworks for government implementation.

Scientific Contributions and Awards:

• Developed the RAND Program Evaluation Toolkit for Countering Violent Extremism, widely used by community-based programs.
• Authored influential reports on defense institution building, personnel vetting, and ISR effectiveness.
• Regular contributor to RAND’s commentary and expert insights on homeland security and extremism.

Stebbins advises on multiple national security grants and policy initiatives, particularly in intelligence reform and counterterrorism. He has collaborated with agencies including the DoD, DHS, and the Senate Judiciary Committee. His military background as an Infantry Combat Medic in the Vermont Army National Guard informs his operational understanding of defense challenges. He has led teams within RAND’s Forecasting Initiative and contributed to major research programs on extremism, AI, and security policy. His future work is expected to focus on AI ethics in national security, resilience against disinformation, and modernizing intelligence collection.