Andrew John George Cairns

Andrew John George Cairns is a Professor at Heriot-Watt University, where he is affiliated with the School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences and the Department of Actuarial Mathematics & Statistics. He is well known both in the UK and internationally for his research in financial risk management for pension plans and life insurers, with a particular focus on longevity risk modeling, measurement, and management. His work extends to statistical analysis of mortality and health inequalities, understanding their drivers, and modeling interest rate risk and quantitative risk management for renewable energy operators.

• Editor of Insurance: Mathematics and Economics since 2023
• Editor-in-Chief of ASTIN Bulletin from 2007-2017
• Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh since 2016
• Member of the Advisory Board of the Academy for the Mathematical Sciences since 2014
• Director of the Actuarial Research Centre of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries from 2016-2020

Cairns' research interests center on risk management, particularly its impact on pension plans and life insurers. His current work focuses on three main themes: modeling and management of longevity risk and its transfer to capital markets; mortality inequalities and their drivers; and using cause-of-death mortality data to understand mortality trends and inequalities. He has made significant contributions to the field through his development of innovative stochastic mortality models, including being a co-inventor of the CBD stochastic mortality models and author of the LifeMetrics open source R code for modeling, measurement, and management of longevity risk.

His recent publications demonstrate a strong focus on mortality modeling, particularly in relation to socio-economic factors, cause-of-death analysis, and the impacts of events like the COVID-19 pandemic. His work spans public health, actuarial science, and statistical modeling, with particular emphasis on mortality inequalities at neighborhood levels and the development of advanced modeling techniques like the Common Cohort Effect Model and local linear regression approaches.

• Edinburgh Mathematical Society Impact Prize (2021)
• Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh (2016)
• Robert I. Mehr Award (2016)
• Halmstad Prize for 'Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk' (2008)

Cairns actively supervises PhD students, with current projects focusing on mortality and longevity risk modeling and management. He has been instrumental in the ARC Longevity, Mortality and Morbidity Research Programme funded by the Actuarial Research Centre. His work contributes to UN Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in areas related to health and well-being. As an active member of the UK and international actuarial profession, he has served in numerous editorial and leadership roles, including as a Fellow of the Faculty of Actuaries since 1993 and as a corresponding member of the Swiss Association of Actuaries.

His research has significant practical applications, with his CBD mortality models adopted by the international insurance and pensions industry. The improved understanding of population and mortality data generated through his work benefits both the UK and international pensions and insurance sectors, demonstrating the real-world impact of his academic contributions.